Sul filo del post di ieri condivido con voi alcune letture sulla pandemia e sul dopo.

Come in Italia anche nel resto del mondo si dibatte sul come saremo quando ne usciremo, quali modelli? I vecchi o nuovi in cui si possano diminuire le diseguaglianze?

What kind of historical moment will this turn out to be, for Europe and the world? It could lead us to the best of times. It could lead us to the worst of times.

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Il contenuto, più in generale, verte sull’istituzione di un reddito minimo universale, ma anche sull’atteggiamento che si riscontra tra i Paesi europei.

In Europe, wealthy northern European countries such as Germany and the Netherlands simply don’t show the necessary degree of solidarity with the battered economies of south European eurozone members. Instead, they use the EU’s crisis-justified suspension of limits on state aid to pump public funds into their key industries, and the gulf between northern and southern Eurozone states grows wider. In a couple of years’ time, a populist like Matteo Salvini, or someone even worse (yes, it’s possible), gains power in an Italy where public debt is now about 160% of GDP and blames all the country’s woes on a lack of north European solidarity.

In un altro [articolo])https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/06/there-is-a-glimmer-of-hope-economists-on-coronavirus-and-capitalism) viene riportata una conversazione tra due economisti David McWilliams, irlandese, e Yanis Varoufakis, che forse ricorderete come Ministro delle Finanze greco che veniva inquadrato nei TG quando arrivava o ripartiva in motocicletta.

Varoufakis vede nella temperie attuale un barlume di speranza

There is a glimmer of hope here, because there is a profound difference between 2020 and 2010. Back then, when Ireland and Greece went belly up, there were remarkable dissimilarities between what our countries were experiencing and what Germany was experiencing, what Holland was experiencing. Today, Germany’s industrial machine is broken – and was broken long before coronavirus hit. Two main industries – automobiles and machine tooling – were already in serious trouble. So the fact that Germany is now in the same pile of shit as the rest of us offers a glimmer of hope that they might say: what should we do? It’s no longer: “Your problem: here’s the Troika.”

Ma contempera questa visione positiva con un’ipotesi alternativa

Well, we humans – and we Europeans, in particular – love to miss fantastic opportunities and end up with dystopian outcomes instead. It’s very likely that we will encounter the same recalcitrance by the same set of European ordoliberals, who will keep putting roadblocks in the way of moves toward a genuine, democratic federalism.

E ha parole anche per l’Italia

Every time there is a crisis in Europe, Italian growth rates fall. Every time there is a problem, Italy sinks deeper into stagnation – with Salvini waiting in the wings. If Frankfurt, Berlin, and Brussels fail again to move toward the positive scenario, Italy – not just Italy, but all of Europe’s most devastated regions – will move again toward the neo-fascist right. In that case, all bets are off.

This is the endpoint of the negative scenario: a giant domino effect, leading to the disintegration of the European Union. Not that the EU will cease to exist. Only that it will become irrelevant, like the Commonwealth of Independent States.

I due auspicano una situazione simile a quella creatasi alla fine della II Guerra Mondiale che condusse agli accordi di Bretton Woods, e che per decenni hanno indirizzato le politiche monetarie del mondo.

Ma nel ventesimo secolo si è vissuto anche un altro dopoguerra. E sappiamo come è finita.

Nell’aria c’è un certo desiderio di livellamento, ma sarà possibile?

‘A morte ‘o ssaje ched’è?…è una livella.
‘Nu rre, ’nu maggistrato, ’nu grand’ommo,
trasenno stu canciello ha fatt’o punto
c’ha perzo tutto, ’a vita e pure ‘o nomme:
tu nu t’hè fatto ancora chistu cunto?
Perciò, stamme a ssenti…nun fa”o restivo,
suppuorteme vicino-che te ‘mporta?
Sti ppagliacciate ‘e ffanno sulo ‘e vive:
nuje simmo serie…appartenimmo à morte!”

Antonio De Curtis

Rapportino ¶

Aspettiamo martedì o mercoledì per dire qualcosa.