Note preliminari al solito rapportino. Ho sostituito, nei primi grafici, i Paesi Bassi con gli USA, che mi sembrano in forte crescita nel brutto borsino dei contagi. L’Europa continua a essere un focolaio formidabile.

Riporto una valutazione dell’ECDC sul livello di rischio che corriamo al momento.

In the present situation where COVID-19 is rapidly spreading in Europe, the current assessment is:

• The risk of severe disease associated with COVID-19 for people in the EU/EEA and the UK is currently considered moderate for the general population and very high for older adults and individuals with chronic underlying conditions.
• The risk of occurrence of widespread national community transmission of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and -the UK in the coming weeks is moderate if effective mitigation measures are in place and very high if insufficient mitigation measures are in place.
• The risk of healthcare system capacity being exceeded in the EU/EEA and the UK in the coming weeks is considered high.

Fondamentalmente niente di sconvolgente, ma giusto per ricordare che la strada è lunga.

Un altro documento dell’ ECDC, risalente all’ottobre scorso, descrive come affrontare un focolaio epidemico. Immagino che in Italia lo abbiano letto solo i pochi cultori della materia. Cito solo alcune frasi iniziali.

Preparedness planning is essential in order to respond effectively to outbreaks, including single cases of high consequence infectious diseases (HCID), such as the importation of a viral haemorrhagic fever case.

HCIDs can include diseases such as: Ebola virus disease, Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever, Marburg virus disease, highly pathogenic avian influenza, pneumonic plague, severe acute respiratory syndrome, to name a few. Patients with such diseases typically develop severe symptoms and require a high level of care. Moreover, case-fatality rates can be high.

Per chiudere guardate questa dashboard della BBC.